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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon attends a policy forum with President Donald Trump in the State Dining Room at the White House, Feb. 3, 2017, in Washington.
“We believe the combination of higher rates and political uncertainty weighed on loan growth in the first quarter, and political uncertainty around tax reform and the ultimate success of a pro-growth agenda may weigh on second-quarter loan growth,” KBW analysts Brian Kleinhanzl and Michael Brown said in a note.
Still, analysts retain a generally positive tone.
Full-year earnings for financials — a group that also includes insurers, diversified financial services companies and capital markets firms — likely will increase 12.1 percent on a 3 percent gain in revenue, according to FactSet estimates.
A robust quarter for debt issuance, initial public offerings and other such activity generated $9.7 billion in investment bank revenues, according to data provider Dealogic. Even absent loan growth, bond trading was brisk despite a weak quarter for equities, according to industry analysts.
Banks could use some good news. After bursting higher after Trump’s election, bank shares of late have been lackluster. The SPDR Bank exchange-traded fund, which tracks the industry’s top names, is off about 6.5 percent over the past month
“There’s probably still some uncertainty in the market,” said Joo-Yung Lee, head of North American financial institutions at Fitch Ratings. “There’s a lot of uncertainty around corporate tax reform, so that’s maybe putting off some deals as people are trying to figure out whether or not that’s likely to materialize.”
