More than a month after US and South Korean officials publicly declared North Korea was ready to set off a nuclear bomb and almost two weeks since analysts said North Korea’s only nuclear test site, Punggye-ri, was “primed and ready,” no detonation has happened.
With every nuclear or missile test, North Korea gets closer to its stated goal of developing a nuclear weapon that can be mounted on a missile capable of reaching the United States.
So what’s with the delay?
“I think it’s safe to say that they will conduct a sixth nuclear test at some point,” Jean Lee, a global fellow at Wilson Center and a lecturer on North Korean studies, told CNN. “But they do calibrate the timing very carefully and are really taking a number of factors into consideration.”
A US official told CNN Tuesday that the military had observed significant activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear testing site, with a new digging effort at the tunnel entrance. The official said that this activity suggests a nuclear test is not imminent.
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The pattern
Domestic affairs and geopolitics are carefully considered when the secretive communist state conducts these tests. They’re used for technical and political purposes, trumpeting the regime’s strength and sending messages of defiance to North Koreans and adversaries abroad.
Tests often come in somewhat predictable cycles, says Lee, timed to capitalize on geopolitics or fall near holidays to take advantage of nationalist fervor.
Most recently, North Korea conducted a failed missile launch on April 16, the day after the Day of the Sun, the country’s most important holiday. The first missile test after US President Donald Trump’s inauguration came when he was meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in February.
There had been some speculation that North Korea would use the 85th anniversary of the founding of the army, which fell on Tuesday and is a significant date on the country’s calendar, to conduct a missile or nuclear test. In the event, the country conducted large-scale artillery drills.
The June 25 anniversary of the Korean War could be options for Pyongyang’s next nuclear test, analysts say.
“With these important dates on the North Korean state calendar, they can dial them up and dial them down as they want to,” said John Delury, an associate professor at the Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies in Seoul.
The problem with reading too much into this pattern is Pyongyang can recognize if the world is following along and react accordingly.
“If these dates are driving the positioning of the (USS) Carl Vinson, the obvious problem is the Vinson can leave and the North Koreans can do a nuclear test the week after that,” Delury said. “They don’t have to do these tests pegged to any particular date.”
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The long game
Some predicted the sixth nuclear test would come on or around the Day of the Sun, the anniversary of the birth of the country’s founding father, Kim Il Sung.
But the holiday came and went without one.
There’s been some movement at Punggye-ri, including what could’ve been some volleyball games.
This could be part of a long game.
By getting the nuclear site ready and then holding off on a test, North Korea keeps the world on pins and needles, analysts say.
“Part of what they want to do is get on the radars of Donald Trump and world leaders. And they have done that,” said Lee.
Pyongyang’s ultimate goal is clear: obtain a nuclear weapon that can reach the United States.
Being ambiguous about their immediate intentions and capabilities gives them an advantage when dealing with adversaries, as no one outside of Kim Jong Un’s inner circle can say with absolute certainty what North Korea can, can’t or will do.
They’ve already got it
Michael Hayden, the former head of the CIA, has predicted that North Korea will probably be able to hit Seattle with a nuclear weapon aboard an indigenously produced intercontinental ballistic missile.
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isQueue) {CNN.VideoPlayer.showSpinner(containerId);},onContentMetadata: function (containerId, playerId, metadata, contentId, duration, width, height) {var endSlateLen = jQuery(document.getElementById(containerId)).parent().find(‘.js-video__end-slate’).eq(0).length;CNN.VideoSourceUtils.updateSource(containerId, metadata);if (endSlateLen > 0) {videoEndSlateImpl.fetchAndShowRecommendedVideos(metadata);}},onAdPlay: function (containerId, cvpId, token, mode, id, duration, blockId, adType) {clearTimeout(moveToNextTimeout);if (blockId === 0) {(new Image()).src = “http://traffic.outbrain.com/network/trackpxl?advid=814&action=view”;}CNN.VideoPlayer.hideSpinner(containerId);if (Modernizr && !Modernizr.phone && !Modernizr.mobile && !Modernizr.tablet) {if (typeof videoPinner !== ‘undefined’ && videoPinner !== null) {videoPinner.setIsPlaying(true);videoPinner.animateDown();}}},onContentPlay: function (containerId, cvpId, event) {var playerInstance,prevVideoId;/** When the video content starts playing, inject analytics data* for Aspen (if enabled) and the companion ad layout* (if it was set when the ad played) should switch back to* epic ad layout. onContentPlay calls updateCompanionLayout* with the ‘restoreEpicAds’ layout to make this switch*/if (CNN.companion && typeof CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout === ‘function’) {CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout(‘restoreEpicAds’);}clearTimeout(moveToNextTimeout);CNN.VideoPlayer.hideSpinner(containerId);if (CNN.VideoPlayer.getLibraryName(containerId) === ‘fave’) {playerInstance = FAVE.player.getInstance(containerId) || null;} else {playerInstance = containerId && window.cnnVideoManager.getPlayerByContainer(containerId).videoInstance.cvp || null;}prevVideoId = (window.jsmd && window.jsmd.v && (window.jsmd.v.eVar18 || window.jsmd.v.eVar4)) || ”;if (playerInstance && typeof playerInstance.reportAnalytics === ‘function’) {if (prevVideoId.length === 0 && document.referrer && document.referrer.search(//videos//) >= 0) {prevVideoId = document.referrer.replace(/^(?:http|https)://[^/]/videos/(.+.w+)(?:/video/playlists/.*)?$/, ‘/video/$1’);if (prevVideoId === document.referrer) {prevVideoId = ”;}}playerInstance.reportAnalytics(‘videoPageData’, {videoCollection: currentVideoCollectionId,videoBranding: CNN.omniture.branding_content_page,templateType: CNN.omniture.template_type,nextVideo: nextVideoId,previousVideo: prevVideoId,referrerType: ”,referrerUrl: document.referrer});}if (Modernizr && !Modernizr.phone && !Modernizr.mobile && !Modernizr.tablet) {if (typeof videoPinner !== ‘undefined’ && videoPinner !== null) {videoPinner.setIsPlaying(true);videoPinner.animateDown();}}},onContentReplayRequest: function (containerId, cvpId, contentId) {if (Modernizr && !Modernizr.phone && !Modernizr.mobile && !Modernizr.tablet) {if (typeof videoPinner !== ‘undefined’ && videoPinner !== null) {videoPinner.setIsPlaying(true);var $endSlate = jQuery(document.getElementById(containerId)).parent().find(‘.js-video__end-slate’).eq(0);if ($endSlate.length > 0) {$endSlate.removeClass(‘video__end-slate–active’).addClass(‘video__end-slate–inactive’);}}}},onContentBegin: function (containerId, cvpId, contentId) {CNN.VideoPlayer.mutePlayer(containerId);if (CNN.companion && typeof CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout === ‘function’) {CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout(‘removeEpicAds’);}CNN.VideoPlayer.hideSpinner(containerId);clearTimeout(moveToNextTimeout);CNN.VideoSourceUtils.clearSource(containerId);jQuery(document).triggerVideoContentStarted();},onContentComplete: function (containerId, cvpId, contentId) {if (CNN.companion && typeof CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout === ‘function’) {CNN.companion.updateCompanionLayout(‘restoreFreewheel’);}navigateToNextVideo(contentId, containerId);},onContentEnd: function (containerId, cvpId, contentId) {if (Modernizr && !Modernizr.phone && !Modernizr.mobile && !Modernizr.tablet) {if (typeof videoPinner !== ‘undefined’ && videoPinner !== null) {videoPinner.setIsPlaying(false);}}},onCVPVisibilityChange: function (containerId, cvpId, visible) {CNN.VideoPlayer.handleAdOnCVPVisibilityChange(containerId, visible);}};if (typeof configObj.context !== ‘string’ || configObj.context.length 0) {configObj.adsection = window.ssid;}CNN.autoPlayVideoExist = (CNN.autoPlayVideoExist === true) ? true : false;CNN.VideoPlayer.getLibrary(configObj, callbackObj, isLivePlayer);});/* videodemanddust is a default feature of the injector */CNN.INJECTOR.scriptComplete(‘videodemanddust’);
