“We have a deep investor base,” Nagata continued. “Aramco can raise huge funds, we’re the third largest by market cap, we’re also a global exchange, we have many top tier companies listed on our First Section. Institutional investors occupy half the trading base.”
The Tokyo Stock Exchange official added that there are many high-net worth individual investors in Japan who could be attracted to an Aramco IPO on a local exchange.
“We are confident we have high liquidity compared to other Asian stock exchanges like Singapore and Hong Kong,” he added.
Singapore’s exchange, he said, is popular for derivatives, but less so for cash equity listings. And as for Hong Kong, Nagata said that exchange may boast China-based institutional investors, but it has fewer individual investors than Tokyo.
Speaking with CNBC this week, HKEX CEO Charles Li made his own pitch for Aramco, saying an IPO in Hong Kong would be a “match made in heaven” because of a distinct value proposition.
“We do bring very unique, very competitive proposition and value to that, both in terms of Hong Kong being an English common law jurisdiction, widely accepted by anybody as a listing venue with the most friendly and robust regulatory system,” Li said.
“We are also very much an international market and operate completely under international law.”
No matter what artificial intelligence may be predicting, analysts and experts on the space emphasized that Saudi Aramco had a real decision before it.
“I think competition between the key exchanges is very real, but Saudi Arabia will be very selective,” Ayham Kamel, director for Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, said in an email.
“New York and London are the prime targets but the current Saudi leadership is keen on attracting Asian investors.”
Both the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange declined to comment on Saudi Aramco’s planned listing when contacted for this story by CNBC. Toronto had confirmed earlier that it is in the hunt.
Kamel called Tokyo’s hopes of nabbing the listing “a long shot,” but said it was not off the table. Hong Kong, he said, has “complications” because of a minimum free float requirement — for which the Saudis would seek an exemption. Singapore, meanwhile, is “viable” but has weak political linkages, he said.
Several others offered similar analysis on the Asian exchanges, including Saxo Bank Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen, who said Tokyo’s chances are “close to zero” and Singapore’s likelihood was “small.”
Jakobsen deemed Hong Kong’s IPO pitch “convincing.”
Most interviewed by CNBC, however, said they saw at least one Saudi Aramco listing in the West.
“As a multi-bourse listing, Asia has an opportunity to be competitive, but Saudi Arabia is still at the early stages of exploring the viability of an Asia listing,” Kamel said.
Multiple international exchanges winning a piece of the listing is certainly a possibility, with several analysts saying such an outcome is the likely course of events.
But the tea leaves about Saudi Aramco’s current leanings are apparently a challenge to read, with several well-placed experts telling CNBC that New York is either a complete shoo-in for the listing — or it stands absolutely no chance because of regulation and geopolitical concerns.
—CNBC’s Gemma Acton, Leslie Shaffer and Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
