“Preliminary weekly data suggests that U.S. production increased further into early December. Recently, U.S. drilling activity and well completion rates have picked up again, suggesting higher production to come in a few months … Consequently, we have raised our annual growth forecast for total U.S. crude oil to 390,000 b/d this year and 870,000 b/d for 2018,” the IEA added.
Looking at next year, it believes that total global supply growth could exceed demand growth, predicting there could be a surplus of 200,000 b/d in the first half of 2018. It then estimates that it could revert to a deficit of about 200,000 b/d in the second half of next year, leaving 2018 as a whole showing a “closely balanced market.”
“A lot could change in the next few months but it looks as if the producers’ hopes for a happy New Year with de-stocking continuing into 2018 at the same 500,000 b/d pace we have seen in 2017 may not be fulfilled,” it said.
