For the U.S. on Friday, the variation in estimates for the September payrolls number is the largest it has been since September 2010 — which was the last time the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) printed a negative number. On the lower end of the range, Jefferies bank is forecasting a negative 45,000 print for the Friday report while on the upper end, Mizuho Bank is holding on to a 175,000 forecast — in line with the average over the last 12 months.
As detailed on the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) website, major disaster declarations for Hurricanes Harvey and Irma covered over 10 percent of the U.S. population and over 6.5 million Floridians were without power in the middle of the payroll survey week.
The adverse weather has also pulled down GDP (gross domestic product) tracking forecasts. As hurricane damage evaluations have settled in the $70 to $100 billion range many analysts are now expecting a near-term slowdown in growth indicators. Goldman Sachs analysts have estimated that the weather disruptions could reduce third-quarter GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point. They note, however, that the weakness should reverse over the subsequent three quarters as reconstruction efforts pick up, more than recouping the lost output in the short run.
