Both presidents marshaled international support for sanctions around Iran’s alleged secret attempts to develop a nuclear weapon. The five nations that negotiated the deal alongside the United States — China, France, Germany, Russia and the U.K. — all say the agreement is preventing Iran from building a weapon and should remain in place.
Still, European firms, which buy about 25 percent of Iran’s oil, could stop their purchases for fear of triggering U.S. sanctions, Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Tuesday. But the bank is less certain how Asian buyers would react.
“We believe the key for the global oil market is whether these flows will be curtailed rather than simply redirected to Asia with the impact of potential U.S. sanctions on international insurance and shipping key to this outcome,” Goldman Sachs said. The Obama administration expanded sanctions to include the insurers and shippers that service Iran’s energy sector.
Sanctions would initially impact several thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports, but the shipments aren’t likely to drop to pre-deal levels without full international backing, Goldman said.
