In a purely strategic sense, this would make Israel the kingdom’s strongest potential Middle East partner in countering Iran for regional primacy. But any public cooperation would be extremely difficult and likely provoke a negative reaction, especially in light of Trump’s Jerusalem announcement, said Ryan Turner, lead political risk analyst at Protection Group International.
“Even in a country like Saudi Arabia where public dissent is limited, cooperation with Israel would carry major downside risks. Overt links would damage perceptions of the Saudi royal family at home and abroad, making it more likely that any rapprochement will be discreet and restrained,” Turner told CNBC.
“King Salman is probably disappointed with Trump’s announcement (on Jerusalem) but the leadership in Saudi Arabia cannot afford to mobilize the Arab or Muslim population on the Jerusalem issue,” Kamel added, stressing the Saudi monarchy’s reliance on U.S. support for its regional endeavors.
‘Completely under the radar’
U.S.-Saudi ties were notably strained under former president Barack Obama, who publicly questioned the longstanding alliance and the kingdom’s human rights regime.
“Trump, however, has embraced Saudi Arabia, and backed a more aggressive role for Riyadh in the region,” Turner noted. “I think Riyadh is keen to protect this relationship.”
This was evident in Trump’s support for the Saudi-led embargo on Qatar in June and his approval of a deal to provide the kingdom $110 billion in military equipment over the next decade, including fighter jets, combat ships, tanks, and precision-guided bombs.
While strategic aims between the Saudis and Israelis coincide on some key levels and Trump’s strong ties with the two encourage a bolstered front against Iran, instances of collaboration will remain highly secretive and are likely to be officially denied.
“The truth is that the Saudi-Israel contacts are episodic, expedient and hard to pin-down,” said a senior Saudi Arabia consultant at Menas Associates, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic. “Now with the Jerusalem issue backfiring, the Saudis will significantly back off, and the contacts, which were openly referred to by Israeli defense officers in recent weeks, will go completely under the radar.”
