Thursday’s data could have some bearing on the outlook for second quarter GDP, which some economists revised lower Wednesday because of soft housing data.
Advanced leading indicators is reported at 8:30 a.m. ET, as are weekly jobless claims. The advanced indicators includes early looks at international trade and inventories which are important for the calculation of GDP growth.
“I think it’ll confirm that we’re still at 3.5 percent [Q2 GDP], 3.5 puts a little above 2 percent for the first half,” said Diane Swonk , CEO of DS Economics.
Swonk expects 3.6 percent growth for the second quarter, after a weak first quarter, expected to be revised slightly higher to 0.9 percent when an update is released Friday. On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs economists pared back second quarter growth to 3 percent from 3.1 percent.
Goldman economists noted the 2.3 percent sales decline in April home sales from March, to 5.57 million units, was still near the March cycle-high. The data followed an 11.4 percent drop in April new home sales on Tuesday. “The recent softening in existing home sales, new home sales, and starts likely reflects the lagged impact of higher mortgage rates,” the economists said.
After Wednesday’s Fed minutes signaled the Fed is ready to move on rate hikes as well as start unwinding its balance sheet this year, Fed speakers will also be important to markets.
Stocks rose, closing near highs of the day, and Treasury yields slipped after the Fed release.
Economists say the Fed looks on track to hike at its next meeting in June, but traders say there were still doubts about the strength of the economic data reflected in the Fed’s minutes, when they were released Wednesday afternoon.
New York Fed Executive Vice President Simon Potter appears on a 6:30 a.m. ET panel discussion at FX Week/Global Financial Markets Association in London. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard speaks at 10 a.m. on global economic issues in Washington. At 10 p.m., St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks in Tokyo on the economy and monetary policy.
