It’s not just South Korea predicting a Sept. 9 ICBM test.
Analysts also said that Pyongyang was likely to launch a missile to coincide with the country’s founding day.
“The North Koreans love to put on a big show for their big national holiday,” Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the U.S.-based Center for the National Interest, told CNBC on Monday.
According to Loo, a Saturday launch is “definitely plausible,” and it’s likely to be one of many more provocations to come from the rogue nation.
As the United Nations considers tougher sanctions, the North Koreans can choose between two options: Attempt to get the U.N. to withdraw its trade restrictions by promising to cease weapons testing, or accelerate the pace of their activities.
They’re likely to take the second route, Loo said.
“If they think they can’t afford to back down, they will keep doing it. If they think the U.S. will back down, they will keep doing it,” he added.
According to analysts, Pyongyang’s ultimate aim is to extract the maximum concessions out of the U.S. and its allies. That could include securing greater economic aid and loosening up existing sanctions.
And North Korea might be prepared to continue to endure the economic squeeze of trade restrictions to get what it wants.
The U.N. imposed its latest round of sanctions on Pyongyang in August. In the month since, Pyongyang has conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test ever, and launched a missile over Hokkaido, which Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called an unprecedented and serious threat.
But one factor outside North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s control could potentially scuttle a launch over the weekend.
An outbreak of geomagnetic storms could cause North Korea to delay any missile launch, Bloomberg reported on Friday, noting the storms could post risks to electronic equipment, including losses to data and auxiliary parts.
