“Because Abe faces no credible challengers inside or outside his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to his leadership, disgruntled or disillusioned voters will find it difficult to shift their support elsewhere,” said Scott Seaman, Asia director at intelligence firm Eurasia, in a note.
Going forward, Abe’s relatively high popularity and a weak opposition shouldn’t hurt the LDP’s chances at July’s Tokyo Assembly elections or snap lower house elections later this year, Koll and Seaman agreed.
There may be some short-term pain, however.
As Abe’s critics pounce on the scandal, key legislative work in the current parliament session could slow, particularly regarding the 2017 budget, labor reform, and Emperor Akihiko’s abdication, Seaman flagged.
But not everyone believes Abe is in the clear.
If he fails to provide a convincing explanation behind the discount, it seems possible that he would be forced to resign, said Koichi Nakano, politics professor at Sophia University.
The PM is no stranger to transgressions, having resigned in 2007 over various factors that included scandals in his cabinet.
Morimoto’s ultra-nationalist reputation also places Abe’s credibility at stake.
At Tsukamoto Kindergarten, students recite the Imperial Rescript on Education — a royal decree that was the basis for Japan’s militaristic education agenda before being abolished in 1947 in favor of more liberal values following the end of World War II. The school operator also drew nation-wide criticism last month after a vice principal at Tsukamoto wrote a statement with derogatory descriptions of Chinese and Koreans that was distributed to parents.
Abe himself has been under criticism for proposing nationalist-tinged education policies so his association with an institute like Morimoto will fuel fears of his conservative political agenda, said Nakano.
“There is no denying the fact that the (couple) had strong ties with the school, and that the school showcased exactly the kind of jarring patriotic education Abe wants to pursue.”
In 2015, Abe’s proposal of security bills that favored a more aggressive military fanned worries of a return to military aggression, a sensitive topic in Japan, where pacifism has dominated since the end of World War II.
