Marine Le Pen, leader of the anti-immigration and populist National Front (NF) has promised to renegotiate the terms of France’s membership of the EU if elected president in May.
Le Pen’s chances of victory in May appear limited as the latest opinion polls suggest she would be defeated in the second and final round of voting by either the former economy minister and independent candidate, Emmanuel Macron or center-right candidate Francois Fillon.
However, the NF leader could yet harbor some hope of securing the French presidency as U.S. President Donald Trump‘s surprise victory as well as the Brexit vote in the U.K. both defied expectations.
“In many ways, all this is reminiscent of the run-up to Brexit,” Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said in a note.
“At that time the then-British (Prime Minister David) Cameron wanted to negotiate with the other EU members to obtain more leeway for the U.K., and put the result to a referendum. However, Marine Le Pen is likely to achieve even less than Cameron in this respect, and France leaving the EU would have far greater repercussions than Brexit,” Krämer added.
Some analysts have given the NF leader up to a one in five chance of becoming President in May though Krämer projected that should Le Pen be able to defy the odds and deliver Frexit, the European Monetary Union would then be “virtually doomed”.
