But following Sunday’s referendum, Erdogan discussed a potential fresh vote to re-introduce the death penalty in Turkey, a change which, if passed, would equal game over for EU membership talks. Theodore Karasik, senior advisor at Gulf State Analytics, takes Erdogan’s move literally, telling CNBC via e-mail that if passed it will “cement Turkey in the Middle East and away from the European Union.” Other analysts CNBC spoke to instead dismissed Erdogan’s suggestion as mere rhetoric with little likelihood of actually materializing.
Both Turkey and the EU have vested interests in a successful partnership. The EU is Turkey’s largest trading partner, accounting for 44.5 percent of the country’s exports according to the European Commission. The two parties’ customs agreement is currently being reformed to include agriculture and services. Also in Turkey’s interests, the potential for visa free travel with the EU is also on the cards.
Meanwhile, the EU is reliant on Turkey’s cooperation to boost security on the continent and address the migrant crisis.
Erdogan has himself suggested that Turkey votes on its potential EU accession. But for O’Daly, much of the president’s anti-EU posturing pre-referendum boiled down to rhetoric aimed at whipping up nationalist support. “Erdogan will put all his time and energy into putting (domestic) reforms through,” he added.
