Far-right parties in Europe are hoping to benefit from increased levels of support as Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party are poised to enter federal parliament for the first time in September and, perhaps even more significantly, Marine Le Pen’s anti-EU National Front (NF) are in contention to become France’s ruling party in May.
“The unconvincing populist performance in the Netherlands may weigh on French voters’ sense of urgency when heading for the ballots for their elections,” a team of analysts at UBS said in a note.
“Hence, we caution against extrapolating the Dutch results, and continue to see a 40 percent chance of a Le Pen victory in France,” UBS analysts added.
Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has consolidated his position as the front-runner to win the French election in May, although Marine Le Pen still leads in April’s first round of the two-stage contest, according to opinion polls published Thursday.
Europe’s establishment parties have vehemently argued that far-right populist groups, such as Le Pen’s NF, pose a real threat to the future of the EU. Le Pen has pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership within six months of becoming president and has also called for France to ditch the single currency altogether.
