Although the pro-independence movement in Catalonia has been a thorn in the side of the Spanish government for decades, tensions came to a head in October when the Catalan government held a referendum on independence despite a ban by Spain’s constitutional court and attempts by Madrid to stop the vote.

The vote took place regardless and there were violent scenes of Spanish police trying to stop voters from entering polling stations, leading to criticism of the Spanish government. Apart from staunch supporters of independence, public sympathy largely turned against Catalonia when a majority in its parliament voted to defy Madrid and declare independence.

Spain quickly responded by enacting Article 155 of the constitution, stripping the semi-autonomous region of its powers and imposing direct rule. The regional government was sacked and Rajoy called fresh elections for December 21.

Montilla said that the key reasons for the PP’s boost in popularity were due to the Catalan side pushing ahead with a unilateral declaration of independence, a move not popular in Spain, and the ability of Rajoy to gather support from PSOE opposition leader Pedro Sánchez for the activation of Article 155, he said, an option that he said was usually seen as “politically toxic” in Spain.

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