She noted that the export strength was due in part to the recent rise in commodity prices and an expansion in the volumes of iron ore shipments, which could see the country post a current account surplus as well.
Emmett noted that the data highlight the difficult decision faced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which was due to announce the results of its monetary policy meeting later in the day.
“On the one hand, they’ve got very strong gains in house prices and we’re seeing that flow through to construction. We saw yesterday’s building approvals numbers surprise on the high side,” she said. “But when you look at nearly all the other indicators outside of housing, they’ve actually been quite weak, especially around the household. And the RBA is really worried about weak wages growth.”
To be sure, not everyone attributed much significance to the trade data.
Paul Dales, chief Australia economist at Capital Economics, said the rebound in the trade surplus could be laid at the door of Lunar New Year distortions, which reduced the surplus in January.
“Because the holiday was earlier than usual this year, more of the rush in China to fulfil export orders happened in January, which boosted Chinese exports and therefore Australia’s imports. In February, the reverse happened,” he said in a note Tuesday.
“With commodity prices having started to edge lower and Cyclone Debbie currently reducing the volume of coal exports, the trade surplus may have peaked.”
—By CNBC.Com’s Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1
