Alyssa Ayres, senior fellow for India at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the ongoing border dispute is a “conflict that China has created.” She added that strategically, the “Chinese military has more to lose” and should the conflict move against its favor, this would mean “a very embarrassing loss of face.”
Both China and India are juggling other foreign policy headaches, with China playing a seminal role in the North Korea nuclear stand-off and accused of aggravating its smaller neighbors over South China Sea islands; while India has been locked into a territorial dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir for many years. China and India last directly clashed over their border in 1962, with the latter country ceding some territory.
Regardless of the potential for conflict, “China’s biggest foreign policy concern is making a success of Belt and Road,” Price said. Broderick and Kumar said that China’s North Korea and South China Sea concerns take precedent because they “include multiple actors and the domestic economy.”
But they added that China’s firm grip on the situation was important, given its upcoming 19th Party Congress this autumn.
Broderick and Kumar also pointed out that Indian voters are more concerned with existential threats from Pakistan, rather than China.
Ultimately with regard to the potential for outright conflict, according to Price, “All logic says it won’t happen.”
