If the Chile talks concentrate on RCEP instead of the TPP, that could actually speed up trade integration, Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit, said in a recent note, deeming RCEP a less complicated than TPP.
At least two TPP member countries, Chile and Peru, have also expressed interest in joining RCEP talks.
But if the 11 existing TPP members — Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru — were to go ahead with the ambitious pact, that would require more time-intensive talks, Biswas noted.
“The original TPP deal required the ratification of TPP members comprising at least 85 percent of the GDP of the entire TPP grouping. Therefore, without the U.S., a new version of the TPP agreement would be needed.”
A focus on RCEP would also work out in Beijing’s favor; the mainland has long preferred the alternative deal over TPP.
“The US withdrawal from the TPP will help to strengthen China’s economic leadership position in the Asia Pacific with its key role as a member of trade negotiations on RCEP and the FTAAP,” said Biswas.
