“Government revenues are likely to benefit from fiscal reforms passed in 2017 and a broader tax base,” said Arone, who also rates Colombia’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors highly.
“In addition, income from oil exports is also expected to increase as oil prices have rebounded and oil production surpasses disappointing levels from last year,” he said. “However, the price of the implementation of the peace accords will likely weigh on fiscal results.”
Colombia’s economy is expected to grow by nearly 3 percent this year, yet analysts estimate Colombia will need to invest billions in order to integrate demilitarized FARC members, and offset the insurgency’s influence on key sectors of the economy. The spending required may put new pressure on a fiscal deficit that has narrowed in recent years, after it ballooned to 4 percent of gross domestic product.
“Recovering commodity prices are a huge boost, so… are outsized infrastructure outlays,” said Douglas Johnson, managing director of Miami-based Cranganore, told CNBC.
In a February note to clients, Johnson said his firm was “still drawn” to Colombia’s underlying growth potential and a robust banking sector. Johnson pointed to two emerging trends: Bank asset growth and financial technology. Bank account volumes are expected to grow, and with it the role of credit in the economy should also expand. In addition, the major Colombian banks are highly profitable.
“We are prepared to look beyond sporadic violence,” he wrote in February.