The U.S. dollar saw a stunning spiral downward this year, now tracking for its worst since 2003.

One strategist closely looking at the dollar’s technical setup says the greenback’s current levels are at a key juncture.

Matt Maley, equity strategist with Miller Tabak, breaks down possible scenarios for the dollar as it trades near these levels. Here’s his take:

• The dollar has fallen more than 9 percent this year, and on Thursday saw a move below a key line of support extending back to September. A move lower from here, just below the 93 mark, could prove positive for emerging markets and commodities.

• Should the dollar move lower still, below its late November lows of 92.5, this would be quite negative on a technical basis.

• Commodities will be of particular concern, given the recent leg higher seen in crude oil, gold, copper and silver.

• This will matter for the broader market, too, as shares of commodity-related firms appear under-owned.

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