Philippe DaubaPantanacce’s latter point may seem counter-intuitive considering that political conservative Fillon’s campaign has been dogged by scandal, causing his initially favorable polling to plummet. Allegations surfaced in March that Fillon paid his wife public money for work she did not do. Both Francois and Penelope Fillon have been placed under formal investigation. The right wing candidate is currently polling at 19 percent – in joint third place with leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon – according to the FT‘s aggregated poll tracker.

“If there’s maybe one surprise that could upset the polls today, my gut feeling is that it could be coming from Fillon,” Dauba-Pantanacce said.

He also argued that as far as the second round run-off goes, “It’s very clear that the polls show that Fillon would have more difficulties to beat Le Pen than Macron, typically. But Fillon I’m very confident would still beat Le Pen, for sure.”

Dauba-Pantanacce described the most expected outcome of Sunday’s vote, centrist En Marche! candidate Emmanuel Macron against Le Pen, as “the most reassuring for all market participants.”